Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask His Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the impact of the easing grocery price inflation on (1) consumer spending habits, and (2) household budgets.

Answered by Baroness Vere of Norbiton - Parliamentary Secretary (HM Treasury)

Inflation reduces real incomes, creates uncertainty, and threatens our growth outlook so it’s essential that the government continues with its efforts to keep inflation down. The government remains steadfast in our support for the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England.

Food inflation has fallen from a peak of 19.6% in March 2023 to 5.0% in February 2024.

The latest data suggests real household disposable income per capita was 1.4% higher in Q4 2023 than in Q4 2022.

ONS retail sales remained unchanged on the month in February. This followed an increase in retail sales volumes of 3.6% on the month in January, fully offsetting the decline in December. Food store sales were 2.8% higher in February than in December.

Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask His Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the factors contributing to the recent decline in consumer prices inflation.

Answered by Baroness Vere of Norbiton - Parliamentary Secretary (HM Treasury)

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has raised interest rates, which is helping to bring inflation down and return to the 2% target sustainably. The Government's responsible approach to borrowing has helped support the MPC as it brings inflation down.

The Office for Budget Responsibility expects CPI inflation to fall to the 2% target in the second quarter of 2024, a year earlier than they expected in November.

Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask His Majesty's Government, following reports that public expectations for inflation have fallen to the lowest level in over two years, what assessment they have made of the impact of falling expectations on (1) wage growth trends, and (2) employment dynamics; and what steps they are taking to address any potential challenges in sustaining wage growth while maintaining price stability.

Answered by Baroness Vere of Norbiton - Parliamentary Secretary (HM Treasury)

Inflation has more than halved, falling from its peak of 11.1% in October 2022 to 3.4% in February 2024 and nominal whole economy total pay has fallen from a peak of 8.9% in the three months to June to 5.6% in the three months to January 2024.

In the three months to January 2024 the unemployment rate was 3.9%, up by 0.1ppt on the year but low by historical standards. The OBR forecast that there will be a moderate rise in unemployment to a peak of 4.5% in Q4 2024 before declining to 4.1% by 2028.

Whilst inflation has fallen it still remains above the 2% target. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) continues to have the government’s full support as it takes action to sustainably return it to target.

Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask His Majesty's Government what, if any, statutory powers the Bank of England has to issue binding directions to (1) the Prudential Regulation Authority, (2) the Financial Conduct Authority, and (3) the Payment Systems Regulator; and on how many occasions in each year since 2007 they have been exercised.

Answered by Baroness Vere of Norbiton - Parliamentary Secretary (HM Treasury)

The Treasury has statutory powers to issue directions to the Bank of England, which can only be used under specific conditions or circumstances. None of the powers outlined below have ever been used.

• Under section 4 of the Bank of England Act 1946, the Treasury may direct the Bank, after consultation with the Governor, to action that is deemed to be necessary in the public interest. This power of direction applies to all of the Bank’s activities, with the exception of monetary policy and the exercise of the Bank’s functions as the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA).

• Under section 19 of the Bank of England Act 1998, the Treasury may by order, after consultation with the Governor, direct the Bank with respect to monetary policy if it is deemed to be in the public interest and required by extreme economic circumstances.

• Under section 410 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000, the Treasury may direct the PRA and the Bank to not take an action that would be incompatible with the UK’s international obligations.

• Under Section 61 of the Financial Services Act 2012, the Treasury may direct the Bank on specific measures relating to the assistance to or stabilisation of financial institutions.

The Bank of England also has powers to direct the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA), Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and Payment Systems Regulator (PSR).

• Under section 9H of the Bank of England Act 1998, the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee (FPC) has powers of direction over the PRA and FCA (limited to the use of specific macroprudential tools). To date, the FPC has only ever used this power to implement the Leverage Ratio.

• Under sections 9Y and 9Z of the Bank of England Act 1998, the Bank may direct the FCA to provide documents or information that the Bank reasonably requires for its financial stability functions. This power has never been used.

• Under section 100 of the Financial Services (Banking Reform) Act 2013, the Bank has the power to direct the PSR not to exercise its powers, under specific circumstances. This power has never been used.

Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask His Majesty's Government what, if any, statutory powers they have to issue binding directions to the Bank of England; and on how many occasions in each year since 2007 they have been exercised.

Answered by Baroness Vere of Norbiton - Parliamentary Secretary (HM Treasury)

The Treasury has statutory powers to issue directions to the Bank of England, which can only be used under specific conditions or circumstances. None of the powers outlined below have ever been used.

• Under section 4 of the Bank of England Act 1946, the Treasury may direct the Bank, after consultation with the Governor, to action that is deemed to be necessary in the public interest. This power of direction applies to all of the Bank’s activities, with the exception of monetary policy and the exercise of the Bank’s functions as the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA).

• Under section 19 of the Bank of England Act 1998, the Treasury may by order, after consultation with the Governor, direct the Bank with respect to monetary policy if it is deemed to be in the public interest and required by extreme economic circumstances.

• Under section 410 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000, the Treasury may direct the PRA and the Bank to not take an action that would be incompatible with the UK’s international obligations.

• Under Section 61 of the Financial Services Act 2012, the Treasury may direct the Bank on specific measures relating to the assistance to or stabilisation of financial institutions.

The Bank of England also has powers to direct the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA), Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and Payment Systems Regulator (PSR).

• Under section 9H of the Bank of England Act 1998, the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee (FPC) has powers of direction over the PRA and FCA (limited to the use of specific macroprudential tools). To date, the FPC has only ever used this power to implement the Leverage Ratio.

• Under sections 9Y and 9Z of the Bank of England Act 1998, the Bank may direct the FCA to provide documents or information that the Bank reasonably requires for its financial stability functions. This power has never been used.

• Under section 100 of the Financial Services (Banking Reform) Act 2013, the Bank has the power to direct the PSR not to exercise its powers, under specific circumstances. This power has never been used.

Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask His Majesty's Government when they anticipate the Bank of England will publish the results of its second climate biennial exploratory scenarios, the first having been published in May 2022.

Answered by Baroness Vere of Norbiton - Parliamentary Secretary (HM Treasury)

The Government welcomes the results of the Bank’s Climate Biennial Exploratory Scenario (CBES), which has been an important milestone in assessing UK system-wide exposures and boosting firms’ capabilities to assess climate-related risk.

Following publication of the CBES results in 2022[1], a Prudential Regulation Authority letter to CEOs[2] set out feedback on how to enhance scenario analysis and further embed supervisory expectations. In recognition that this feedback will take time to embed, the Bank has publicly stated that it will not launch a concurrent exercise in the near-term that further explores climate risks.

The Bank also affirmed in its 2023 report on climate-related risks and the regulatory capital frameworks[3] that it will further develop its capabilities to test the resilience of the financial system to climate risks- including how scenario exercises and stress tests can help the Bank and firms understand the exposure of the financial system to risks and progress work to understand material regime gaps in the capital frameworks. Further, the Bank continues to support the development of climate scenarios as a member of the NGFS’s dedicated “Scenario Design and Analysis” Workstream.

The Bank of England has statutory responsibilities for monetary policy and financial stability, and operational independence from the Government to carry out those objectives.

[1] CBES results

[2] Prudential Regulation Authority letter to CEOs

[3] 2023 report on climate-related risks and the regulatory capital frameworks

Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask His Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the impact of the recent strengthening in sterling on inflation in the UK; and what assessment they have made of the effect this may have on the timing and magnitude of monetary policy adjustments made by the Bank of England.

Answered by Baroness Vere of Norbiton - Parliamentary Secretary (HM Treasury)

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is the government’s official forecaster. They published their latest assessment of the economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) on 6^th March. The OBR noted that the trade weighted sterling effective exchange rate had strengthened by around 2 per cent since their November 2023 forecast. Inflation has halved since its peak in October 2022 and was 4.0% in January 2024. In the March EFO, the OBR note that inflation has fallen more sharply than they expected in November, and now expect inflation to fall below 2% in Q2 2024 – a year earlier than previously expected.

Monetary Policy is the responsibility of the independent Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England. Therefore, it is right the Government does not comment on the conduct of monetary policy.

Found: Ian was previously a member of the Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England having spent his

Found: The independent Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England responded to high inflation by

Found: growth forecasts from HM Treasury panel of independent forecasts (March 2024), the Bank of England (Monetary

Found: growth forecasts from HM Treasury panel of independent forecasts (March 2024), the Bank of England (Monetary

Found:  In its May 2023 Monetary Policy Report12, the Bank of England expected inflation to fall to around

Found: Monetary Policy Report – November 2023 . 2 November 2023. (Bank of England.)

Found: response to the rise in inflation, the Bank of England increased the Bank Rate at fourteen consecutive Monetary

Found: To reduce inflationary pressures, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) increased the

Found: • In response to recent inflation and wider economic data, t he Bank of England’s Monetary Policy

Found: It is assumed that fiscal policy and monetary policy in the model remain endogenous – in other words